It’s been a lively year for both gold and oil investors but the year to remember may be the one ahead.
Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 27 percent jump in energy and a 17 percent rise in precious metals over the next 12 months. On the oil side, Goldman credits a rebound in industrial production for a 520,000-barrel-per-day increase in China’s implied oil demand in August (year over year). As you can see from the left-side chart, Chinese oil demand has remained a fairly consistent story going back several years.
Globally, world oil demand was up 2.4 million barrels per day on a year-over-year basis in August, according to Goldman Sachs (right chart). Rising demand from emerging nations has created a 600,000-barrel-per-day global supply deficit since May. This month saw a reversal in the U.S., with weeks of growing inventory surpluses swinging to draw-downs after Labor Day.
The long-term prospects for oil haven’t changed. Estimates from Wood Mackenzie and Deutsche Bank show that global oil production will decline 12 percent by 2015 without new investment. Production rates in Britain, Australia, U.S. offshore and Norway have declined 15 percent or more since 2000. Finding future reserves is increasingly difficult and costly, so prices will have to be higher to make developing these reserves worthwhile.
New all-time high prices for gold this week leave many to wonder if we’re nearing a top, but we think gold’s bull run may have further to go. Since mid-August, prices have risen on the back of a significant increase in net long positions on the COMEX and investor interest is near highs for the year. In addition, central bankers have also been stocking up on gold – for the first time since 1988, they will be net buyers of bullion in 2010.
This could also be just the beginning. BCA Research says gold is in a bull market and will “remain that way until macro and/or industry-specific trends change significantly.” BCA cites low real interest rates and high policy uncertainty as the twin engines powering gold higher.
Washington has yet to show how it will reduce the gaping federal deficit, and the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates near zero well into 2011. When you throw in a possible return to quantitative easing, the prospects for higher gold prices look even stronger.
The sturdiest pillar supporting both gold and oil should continue to be China. Even though China was recently crowned the world’s largest energy consumer, the country’s energy demands are still small on a per-capita basis. And for gold, Chinese demand—government, investor and jewelry consumers—remains strong despite high prices. The World Gold Council predicts gold consumption there could double in the coming decade.
Fears of a bubble bursting in the Chinese economy have been deflated as the country prepares itself for a soft landing. Analysts at CLSA says China will remain “the world’s best consumption story” due to income growth, moderate inflation and low household debt. They expect GDP growth to be just under 10 percent this year, and 8 percent to 9 percent in 2011.
There will likely be short-term volatility in commodities, but we believe the enduring strength of the global growth story being led by China and other key emerging markets should be a powerful demand driver in the years ahead.
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The COMEX is a commodity exchange in New York City formed by the merger of four past exchanges. The exchange trades futures in sugar, coffee, petroleum, metals and financial instruments. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
by Frank Holmes
CEO and chief investment officer
Waheed Mahmood
Having reached their 10-year historical peak, gold prices are getting dizzier at the top. Yet, given the unyielding demand generated by punters, investors, and consumers alike, prices are seen stubborn in the days ahead. Soaring inflation amid weak global economic indicators has made gold quite enchanting - a tradition that has its roots in time immemorial. By the end of the second quarter this year, global gold demand stood at 919.8 tons, down by 17 percent year-on-year, according to World Gold Council. However, in value terms, gold demand surged five percent to reach $44.5 billion. Almost half the pull came from the jewellery segment with buyers from India, China, Saudi Arabia and USA topping the list. These four countries together made up 46 percent of the world demand. Indias mushrooming economy, up-coming festivals and better-than-expected harvest is expected to further strengthen sales. Meanwhile, as world equity markets collapse and the European debt crisis creates ripples across countries, demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased in the past few years, experiencing a 152 percent zoom in 2008. Investors flock to safer havens like gold, as US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields fall to its sixty year lows. Demand for technological uses of the metal remained more or less unaffected; whereas physical demand for bars and coins rose by 42 percent in 2QCY11 over the same period last year. Yet again, India and China dominated this rush. Mine production was the only positive contributor to the gold supply, increasing by a modest seven percent in 2QCY11. However, the price of the metal is hardly determined by the equilibrium of demand and supply, as the bull-run is largely driven by speculation. Analysts compare the recent ascent to the commodities boom of 1980s, when gold prices spiked to reach a record high of $850 per ounce, only to plummet soon and settle within $300-$400 for some years to come. Adjusting for inflation, this record still stands waiting to be broken, which in other words, means 2000-dollar-prophecy may well come true. So long, wedding revelers.
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