SINGAPORE/SYDNEY: The euro steadied on Friday after a drubbing overnight on weak euro zone data, supported by talk that Asian sovereign players were buying the single currency to defend an option barrier.
Some traders said the euro may trend lower in coming days, given growing worries about the euro zone growth outlook and the possibility of the European Central Bank softening its hawkish stance at next week's policy meeting.
Data on Thursday showed manufacturing in the euro zone contracted for the first time in almost two years and a Spanish bond sale drew lukewarm demand.
Also boding ill for the euro is its drop below an upward trendline drawn through its mid-July low and troughs hit in early August. The trendline now comes in near $1.4295 and may serve as resistance.
"Any hint of an easing bias from the ECB would accelerate EUR breaking the bottom of the recent range of 1.41-1.45," analysts at BNP Paribas said.
The euro was little changed at $1.4257 by midday in Asia on Friday. On Thursday, it fell 0.8 percent and touched a three-week low around $1.4227 at one point.
Traders said option positions built up during the last couple of days suggest some players are positioning for a break to the downside, targeting $1.3850.
Possible support levels for the euro include the euro's Aug. 12 intraday low near $1.4150 and its Aug. 5 intraday low of $1.4055.
Lower down, the euro's 200-day moving average comes in near $1.4005, and an upward trendline drawn off lows hit in June 2010 and January 2011 lies roughly around $1.3930 or so.
The Australian dollar fell as US stock futures retreated after the New York Times reported that theagency that oversees US mortgage markets is preparing to file suit against "more than a dozen" big US banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgages they packaged and sold during the housing bubble.
The Aussie dollar dipped 0.2 percent to $1.0704.
JOBS DATA
The market's focus is on US jobs data due later on Friday, the last nonfarm payrolls report before a Fed policy meeting later this month, at which many market participants are expecting some sort of additional easing.
Unemployment is a key determinant in whether the Fed takes additional action to support the economy.
Market players say expectations for the jobs data have been lowered after the employment gauge in a US manufacturing survey released on Thursday dipped to its lowest level since November 2009. A strong result could trigger a bigger reaction than a weak outcome, said Adarsh Sinha, Asia-Pacific G10 FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong.
"I think expectations are probably pretty pessimistic going into payrolls," Sinha said. Economists polled by Reuters are expecting the payrolls data to show an increase of 75,000 jobs.
Sinha, however, said that the market may now be bracing for a smaller increase of about 40,000 jobs.
"If it's better than expected, then the market is going to price out expectations of further easing to some extent... I would expect that to be a dollar positive scenario," he said.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, was little changed at 74.537 , hovering near a three-week high of 74.714 hit on Thursday.
The yen showed little reaction to news that new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda picked Jun Azumi, a former parliamentary affairs chief for the ruling Democratic Party, to become the new finance minister.
Copyright Reuters, 2011
Waheed Mahmood
Having reached their 10-year historical peak, gold prices are getting dizzier at the top. Yet, given the unyielding demand generated by punters, investors, and consumers alike, prices are seen stubborn in the days ahead. Soaring inflation amid weak global economic indicators has made gold quite enchanting - a tradition that has its roots in time immemorial. By the end of the second quarter this year, global gold demand stood at 919.8 tons, down by 17 percent year-on-year, according to World Gold Council. However, in value terms, gold demand surged five percent to reach $44.5 billion. Almost half the pull came from the jewellery segment with buyers from India, China, Saudi Arabia and USA topping the list. These four countries together made up 46 percent of the world demand. Indias mushrooming economy, up-coming festivals and better-than-expected harvest is expected to further strengthen sales. Meanwhile, as world equity markets collapse and the European debt crisis creates ripples across countries, demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased in the past few years, experiencing a 152 percent zoom in 2008. Investors flock to safer havens like gold, as US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields fall to its sixty year lows. Demand for technological uses of the metal remained more or less unaffected; whereas physical demand for bars and coins rose by 42 percent in 2QCY11 over the same period last year. Yet again, India and China dominated this rush. Mine production was the only positive contributor to the gold supply, increasing by a modest seven percent in 2QCY11. However, the price of the metal is hardly determined by the equilibrium of demand and supply, as the bull-run is largely driven by speculation. Analysts compare the recent ascent to the commodities boom of 1980s, when gold prices spiked to reach a record high of $850 per ounce, only to plummet soon and settle within $300-$400 for some years to come. Adjusting for inflation, this record still stands waiting to be broken, which in other words, means 2000-dollar-prophecy may well come true. So long, wedding revelers.
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The latest financial soundness indicators released by the SBP have given out mixed signals on the performance of the local banking industry. The positives first: The banking industrys profitability is on the mend due to a variety of reasons. Higher interest rates, decent deposits growth (29 percent in 18 months), availability of high rewarding sovereign investments enabling banks to sustain high level of margins and cost cutting measures both at administrative level and pouring low cost demand deposits; all helped the banks attain improved bottom lines. The commercial banks ROE jumped significantly to 14.2 percent in 1HCY11 from 10.7 percent at the end of same period a year ago. This represents a significant improvement compared to CY09 and CY08, when the commercial banks ROE averaged around 7.95 percent. The capital position of the commercials banks also remained strong, as bankers managed to keep risk weighted CAR unchanged at 14.2 percent at the end of June 2011 over same period a year earlier. Simultaneously, Tier 1 Capital to RWA also stayed constant at 12.2 percent. A higher CAR means higher protection level for depositors. But the critics relate higher capital adequacy ratios to the banks growing interest in sovereign instruments which have a zero risk weighting. This is also clear from a declining capital to total assets ratio, which eased down to 9.4 at the end of June, 2011, down from 10.1 percent same period last year. Considering the fiscal quagmire and the ever rising debt level, there shall be a healthy debate on assigning some risk weight to government borrowing or putting a cap on a banks exposure to treasury bills. However, asset quality indicators painted a dismal picture as a combination of high interest rate environment and weak economy led to poor asset quality. The commercial banks infection ratio stood at 14.8 percent at the end of June, up from 12.5 percent same periods last year. On top of that, a worrisome development is that the ratio of toxic loans grew in the face of negligible growth in advances. The gross advances level on the commercial banks balance sheet rose by merely seven percent in the past one and a half year. The current higher infection ratio has bucked the market expectation, which had earlier forecasted the ratio of bad loans to have peaked out in 2009. Foreign banks remained more prudent, with the infection ratio of nine percent as of June 30; nearly 5.8 percentage points lower than the average of commercial banks. In part, the deterioration in the asset quality in the past one and a half year will have an adverse bearing on the industrys bottom-line down the line since it will result in higher provisioning cost. The mix of positive and negative indicators calls into question, the soundness of the local banking industry. To no ones surprise, the analysts warn the market of the industrys higher profitability level. The banking industrys profitability is concentrated in the hands of big five banks and has not been supported by growth in advances level or steady asset quality. This can be gauged from the fact that the commercial banks ADR fell to 55.3 percent at the end of 1HCY11, a drop of six percentage points in the past one year. This highlights the existences of conflict of interest between mangers and shareholders in the industry, as the former focuses on short term profitability, while the latter demands quality of earning assets.
LONDON
